Loans and working-capital discipline
Borrow for productive assets while preserving payroll, rent and reorder cash.

Decision first
A loan is safe only when a tested store plan can repay it without consuming the next inventory order.
Use this guide only with Big Ambitions 1.0 Build 3674 or a later build whose notes do not replace the banking rules described here.
Confirm the main-menu build is 3674 or later.
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Build 3674 banking baseline
Use this guide only with Big Ambitions 1.0 Build 3674 or a later build whose notes do not replace the banking rules described here.
Version 1.0 removed negative interest. Cash left in an ordinary account is therefore no longer penalized merely for being cash, which invalidates the old routine of emptying accounts before the weekly charge. The same release made loan qualification stricter, raised interest and minimum daily payments, increased the maximum available from Vantander Bank, and added partial repayment. Build 3672 then corrected several loan calculations and made a bank state the available maximum when a request is too large. These are official changes, not inferred rates.
Build 3674 matters to cash-flow diagnosis even though its headline was not banking. It fixed an employee quit-state error that could stop training, importing, and deliveries. A company on Build 3672 could therefore appear to have a purchasing failure, lose sales, and miss a debt payment for reasons unrelated to its plan. Advance through the next day after updating, then reassess recurring flows before changing routes, dismissing managers, or borrowing emergency cash.
No official current table publishes one universal approval multiple, daily rate, or repayment period. Difficulty, recent income, lender, and the values displayed in the save are the controlling evidence. Record the offer shown by Jensen Capital and Vantander on the decision day. Do not copy an Early Access maximum of forty thousand or eight hundred thousand into a 1.0 plan; Vantander's ceiling was explicitly enlarged and Build 3672 improved the feedback for over-large requests.
Action checklist
- Confirm the main-menu build is 3674 or later.
- Advance one day after applying the hotfix.
- Record lender, principal, rate, and minimum payment.
- Ignore all pre-1.0 negative-interest routines.
- Use the bank's displayed maximum, not an online table.
- Save a baseline EconoView screenshot before borrowing.
| Claim | 1.0 status | Planning treatment |
|---|---|---|
| Negative interest on idle cash | Removed | Hold an operating reserve without a weekly cash penalty |
| Higher Vantander maximum | Released | Read the current offer in the save |
| Partial loan repayment | Released | Use staged deleveraging instead of all-or-nothing repayment |
| One fixed approval formula | Not published | Measure the offer after income changes |
| Import and delivery failure | Fixed in 3674 | Update before treating it as insolvency |
Separate profit, cash, and liquidity
A profitable store can still run out of money because accounting profit and the bank balance answer different questions.
Profit recognizes the economic cost of goods when those goods are sold. Cash flow records when money actually enters or leaves the account. Liquidity asks whether cash available at a particular moment covers obligations due at that moment. In Big Ambitions, buying inventory exchanges cash for stock. The stock remains an asset, while EconoView later assigns its resource cost to the units sold. The developer has explicitly explained that the resource line is not a second charge. It is needed to calculate store profitability without pretending inventory was free.
Use three formulas. Operating profit equals sales revenue minus COGS minus wages minus rent minus marketing minus other operating expenses. Net cash change equals cash receipts minus cash purchases, payroll, rent, marketing, debt service, taxes, capital purchases, and transfers to investments, plus loans and investment withdrawals. Available liquidity equals bank cash plus immediately withdrawable investments minus protected tax reserve minus payments committed before the next dependable sales cycle. The third number, not BizMan's color, determines whether expansion is safe.
A stock build illustrates the difference. Suppose a shop sells twenty thousand dollars, recognizes eight thousand of COGS, and pays six thousand of operating costs, so operating profit is six thousand. If the warehouse also buys thirty thousand of stock that night, cash can fall by twenty-four thousand even though the shop is profitable. The reverse occurs when old inventory is sold without a new order: cash may rise faster than reported profit. Neither pattern is automatically an error.
Action checklist
- Write profit and cash change in separate columns.
- Treat inventory purchases as working-capital movements.
- Do not add EconoView COGS to the bank debit again.
- Protect tax and debt reserves from expansion spending.
- Reconcile transfers to and from investments.
- Investigate timing before calling a report incorrect.
| Measure | Core formula | Decision supported |
|---|---|---|
| Operating profit | Sales - COGS - operating expenses | Is the business model viable? |
| Cash change | Receipts - all cash outflows + financing | Why did the account move? |
| Liquidity | Cash + accessible funds - protected reserves | Can obligations be paid on time? |
| Working capital | Inventory plus operating cash less near-term obligations | Can the sales cycle continue? |
| Debt headroom | Stress cash surplus less required debt service | Can more debt be carried? |
Read BizMan and EconoView on the same time basis
Most apparent contradictions come from comparing a seven-day average with a short daily history or with the midnight balance movement.
A January 2026 developer review of a submitted save explains that BizMan's overview number was average daily income over the previous seven days. In that example, the company had paid employees before the law firm opened, so early setup losses remained inside the average. EconoView showed four recent daily results, two positive and two sharply negative, while the rolling average stayed red. A new opening therefore needs a complete comparable window before the seven-day figure represents steady operation.
The midnight change is not interchangeable with business profit. A developer explanation of the former end-of-day presentation notes that the displayed profit could include COGS from goods bought on prior days while excluding imports purchased that day. The current interface was clarified, but the accounting distinction remains. Use business-level EconoView for revenue, resources, wages, rent, marketing, and operating profit; use bank movements and company EconoView for cash purchases, loan proceeds, debt payments, taxes, investments, and one-off capital spending.
Build a reconciliation rather than choosing whichever screen looks favorable. Start with opening cash, add sales and other receipts, subtract every dated cash outflow, then compare with closing cash. Separately calculate operating profit from sales less recognized costs. Label the difference as working-capital movement, financing, investment transfer, tax, or capital expenditure. If an unexplained remainder remains on an unmodded Build 3674 save, preserve screenshots and submit F2 with a linked Steam thread.
Action checklist
- Match the date range before comparing reports.
- Wait for a full operating week after launch.
- Use EconoView for daily business economics.
- Use bank movements for cash timing.
- Tag setup wages as pre-opening burn.
- Report unexplained residuals with an F2 save.
| View | What it is good at | Frequent mistake |
|---|---|---|
| BizMan overview | Fast seven-day operating comparison | Reading the average as today's cash |
| Business EconoView | Daily sales and expense diagnosis | Ignoring its limited visible history |
| Company EconoView | Portfolio-level flows and tax context | Blaming one store for a shared cost |
| Bank balance | Immediate solvency | Calling every balance increase profit |
| Inventory page | Units, prices, and stock movement | Treating sales value as net income |
Loan affordability formula
Size debt from stressed free cash flow, never from the bank's maximum approval alone.
Define normalized daily operating cash flow as collected sales minus routine cash purchases, payroll, rent, marketing, logistics, and other recurring cash costs, averaged over comparable open days. Subtract a daily tax reserve and planned maintenance or replacement reserve. The result is cash available for debt service, abbreviated CADS. Debt-service coverage ratio, or DSCR, equals CADS divided by required daily loan payment. A value above one means the modeled day covers the payment; it does not guarantee safety.
Use a stress DSCR rather than a headline ratio. Recalculate sales at a lower customer count, prices after a rival response, higher COGS after a supplier movement, and a missed delivery day. For a young retail business, a planning floor of 1.5 can be sensible: sixty dollars of debt service for each ninety dollars of stressed CADS. This is a recommendation, not a game rule. Volatile cinema licenses, factories, and rival-exposed luxury stores may justify a wider margin.
Worked scenario: a seven-day baseline averages eighteen thousand of receipts, five thousand of inventory cash replenishment, six thousand of wages, fifteen hundred rent and marketing, and one thousand other costs. Normalized operating cash flow is four thousand five hundred. Reserve one thousand for tax and replacements, leaving CADS of three thousand five hundred. A displayed minimum payment of two thousand gives DSCR 1.75. If sales fall twenty percent while costs remain fixed, CADS becomes negative one hundred; the loan fails the stress test even though the normal case looks comfortable.
Action checklist
- Use the displayed minimum daily payment.
- Average only comparable operating days.
- Deduct a tax reserve before calculating coverage.
- Stress sales, COGS, wages, and delivery interruptions.
- Require headroom above a ratio of one.
- Do not borrow merely because the bank approves.
| Case | Receipts | CADS before debt | DSCR on 2,000 payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 18,000 | 3,500 | 1.75 |
| Sales down 10% | 16,200 | 1,700 | 0.85 |
| Sales down 20% | 14,400 | -100 | Negative |
| COGS cash up 20% | 18,000 | 2,500 | 1.25 |
| One 10,000 disruption over seven days | 18,000 average | 2,071 | 1.04 |
Opening and expansion cash budget
Borrowing succeeds when the budget includes the delay between spending on a business and receiving stable sales.
Divide the project into acquisition, fit-out, pre-opening burn, working capital, and contingency. Acquisition includes takeover payment or deposits. Fit-out includes furniture, machines, vehicles, renovation, and delivery fees. Pre-opening burn includes rent, salaries, recruitment, training, and marketing paid while capacity is not yet productive. Working capital includes initial store and warehouse stock plus the next replenishment cycle. Contingency covers wrong equipment, delayed candidates, route failures, and slower demand.
The loan should not be counted twice. Sources equal existing deployable cash plus loan proceeds plus any planned partial investment withdrawal. Uses equal all five project buckets plus the protected company reserve. Sources minus uses is closing headroom. Reject or resize the project when closing headroom cannot cover the longest credible gap until normalized receipts. A beautiful full-size store that opens with no reorder cash is not fully financed.
Worked launch: fit-out one hundred twenty thousand, initial stock sixty thousand, recruitment and training twenty thousand, twenty days of fixed burn at three thousand per day, and contingency thirty thousand. Total project uses are two hundred ninety thousand. If deployable cash is ninety thousand and the proposed loan is two hundred fifty thousand, nominal headroom is fifty thousand. But a protected tax reserve of twenty-five thousand and the first ten days of loan payments at one thousand consume thirty-five thousand, leaving only fifteen thousand. The plan needs cheaper fit-out, staged hiring, or more cash.
Action checklist
- List every cost before requesting the loan.
- Include recruitment and training before opening.
- Fund the first reorder, not just opening stock.
- Keep tax cash outside project sources.
- Include loan payments during ramp-up.
- Preserve a disruption contingency.
| Budget bucket | Example amount | Control |
|---|---|---|
| Fit-out | 120,000 | Quote before signing |
| Initial stock | 60,000 | Base on boxes and lead time |
| People before opening | 20,000 | Stage recruitment |
| Twenty-day fixed burn | 60,000 | Use scheduled wages and rent |
| Contingency | 30,000 | Do not decorate with it |
| Total | 290,000 | Compare with deployable sources |
Reserve architecture
One large balance hides which dollars are free, so divide liquidity into operating, tax, debt, and shock reserves.
The operating reserve covers routine timing mismatch: payroll, rent, marketing, import orders, and delivery operations between receipts. The tax reserve tracks EconoView's current projection after Build 3672's rate fix. The debt reserve covers minimum payments during an adverse run. The shock reserve covers rival attacks, employee departures, broken vehicles, lost trading hours, and emergency manual stock. Expansion cash is only the remainder after these protected layers.
A practical reserve formula is maximum expected seven-day recurring cash outflow plus the next large committed order plus tax due within the planning horizon plus a chosen number of daily debt payments. For a stable service office, seven to fourteen days of fixed costs may be enough. Inventory-heavy or rival-exposed operations may need one full supplier cycle plus safety stock. These are management choices, not hidden game thresholds.
Use partial investment withdrawals only as secondary liquidity. The 1.0 feature makes investments more flexible, but market value can move and access still requires player action. Do not schedule a tax or minimum loan payment on the assumption that an investment will appreciate. Cash has no negative-interest penalty in 1.0, so keeping a deliberate reserve no longer incurs the old weekly punishment. That change makes resilience cheaper than it was in Early Access.
Action checklist
- Name each reserve in the tracking sheet.
- Update tax reserve from EconoView.
- Cover the next committed supplier order.
- Add debt payments for the selected stress period.
- Keep investments outside primary operating cash.
- Release reserves only after obligations clear.
| Reserve | Covers | Release trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Operating | Routine seven-day outflows | New receipts settle |
| Tax | Projected and currently owed tax | Payment confirmed |
| Debt | Minimum daily payments | Principal repaid or risk falls |
| Shock | Rival, staff, vehicle, route failure | Exposure removed |
| Expansion | New project spending | All protected reserves remain full |
Partial repayment decision
The new partial-payment feature turns repayment into an incremental capital-allocation choice.
Compare the certain interest avoided with the expected value of the next-best use of cash. A partial repayment lowers principal and future financing burden, but it also reduces liquidity. Never repay so aggressively that the company must borrow again after the next tax bill or stock order. Set a post-payment reserve floor first; only cash above that floor is eligible.
Use this decision equation: repayable surplus equals cash plus immediately available investment withdrawals minus operating reserve minus tax reserve minus shock reserve minus all committed project uses. If repayable surplus is positive, compare repayment with expansion under a conservative scenario. Debt reduction has a predictable benefit shown by the loan terms. Expansion has an uncertain benefit, startup delay, and execution risk. Investment returns are uncertain and must not be presented as guaranteed.
Example: cash is four hundred thousand. Protected reserves and commitments total two hundred seventy thousand, leaving one hundred thirty thousand repayable surplus. A new kiosk would consume one hundred fifty thousand and is therefore not yet fully funded. Paying one hundred thousand toward the loan leaves thirty thousand flexible cash above reserves and reduces future interest. Paying the full one hundred thirty thousand leaves no decision buffer. A staged payment of seventy-five thousand may be superior while a rival attack remains active.
Action checklist
- Calculate the reserve floor before repayment.
- Use only surplus above committed uses.
- Read the current principal after every payment.
- Compare certain interest savings with stressed expansion value.
- Keep a decision buffer during rivalry.
- Recheck the minimum payment after principal changes.
| Choice | Liquidity after reserves | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| No repayment | 130,000 | Highest interest burden |
| Repay 75,000 | 55,000 | Balanced buffer |
| Repay 100,000 | 30,000 | Thin opportunity buffer |
| Repay 130,000 | 0 | Any surprise breaches reserves |
| Open 150,000 kiosk | -20,000 | Project is underfunded |
Sensitivity analysis for debt-funded projects
A single forecast conceals fragility; a small matrix shows which variable can break the project.
Choose four drivers that correspond to in-game controls: customer count, realized selling price, unit COGS, and scheduled labor hours. Add fixed rent, marketing, licenses, logistics, and debt service. Base profit equals units times price minus units times COGS minus labor and fixed costs. Break-even units equal labor plus fixed costs plus debt service divided by unit contribution, where unit contribution is price minus unit COGS.
Suppose a retailer expects four hundred units a day at thirty dollars, COGS twelve dollars, labor three thousand, other fixed costs two thousand, and debt service one thousand. Contribution is eighteen dollars; break-even volume is three hundred thirty-four units after rounding up. Base cash contribution after modeled costs is one thousand two hundred. A ten-percent price cut lowers contribution to fifteen dollars and raises break-even volume to four hundred units. That price response consumes all headroom before customer volume falls.
Run combined cases because rivals can reduce price while a stock problem reduces volume. Also test wage increases or duplicate shifts, and test supplier cost movement. Record the result as pass, watch, or fail. A project passes when it retains positive cash after debt and required reserves in the combined downside. It is watch when only one moderate variable makes it negative. It fails when the base case barely covers the minimum payment.
Action checklist
- Model unit contribution before borrowing.
- Calculate break-even customer or unit volume.
- Test price and volume together.
- Test COGS and wage increases.
- Include license and logistics fixed costs.
- Reject a base case with no margin of safety.
| Scenario | Units | Price | Modeled surplus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 400 | 30 | 1,200 |
| Volume -15% | 340 | 30 | 120 |
| Price -10% | 400 | 27 | 0 |
| COGS +20% | 400 | 30 | 240 |
| Price -10% and volume -15% | 340 | 27 | -900 |
Cash conversion and inventory discipline
Debt magnifies the cost of slow or excessive inventory because cash leaves before stock proves it can sell.
Track days of cover by product: on-hand sellable units divided by average daily units sold. Reorder point equals expected demand during replenishment lead time plus safety stock. Cash tied in excess inventory equals excess units times actual unit purchase cost. These formulas work with wholesalers, importers, or factories, but the lead time and box constraints differ. Use the current importer interface, which now displays box size.
Do not treat warehouse stock as spare cash. A highly profitable item can still create a cash squeeze when minimum order size is large, import timing is long, or multiple stores replenish together. Consolidation may reduce urgent trips, yet a single oversized order can collide with tax and debt dates. Stagger purchase lists or reserve the order cash before authorizing expansion.
Build 3674 corrected a failure that could interrupt imports and deliveries, and 1.0 prevents an import order from being cancelled solely because a purchasing agent is sick. Those protections do not solve inadequate shelf capacity, vehicle limits, route order, target errors, or insufficient cash. Diagnose in sequence: employee state, cash for order, order status, warehouse capacity, vehicle and driver, route target, store capacity, then actual sales.
Action checklist
- Calculate days of cover for each major SKU.
- Set reorder point from lead time and demand.
- Reserve cash for the next accepted order.
- Stagger large imports around taxes and debt.
- Verify warehouse and store capacity.
- Update before debugging a stopped route.
| Metric | Formula | Warning |
|---|---|---|
| Days of cover | On hand / daily units sold | Too high locks cash |
| Reorder point | Lead-time demand + safety stock | Too low causes lost sales |
| Excess stock cash | Excess units x unit cost | Not available for payments |
| Cash conversion lag | Purchase date to sales receipt | Long lag raises reserve need |
| Stockout cost | Lost contribution + fixed cost still paid | Can exceed urgent delivery cost |
Rival and disruption stress playbook
A loan plan must survive an attack without turning a temporary competitive event into permanent insolvency.
Special rivals can reduce prices, attack demand, poach employees, or refuse rent in buildings they own. Version 1.0 made rival attacks more aggressive. Price cuts reduce contribution per sale; demand attacks reduce volume; poaching can reduce capacity and satisfaction; rent refusal can delay relocation or expansion. These are distinct cash-flow shocks and need distinct responses.
When price pressure begins, measure contribution at the new price before matching. The developer has said rivals will not generally price below wholesale cost, and dropping everything to one dollar is usually self-harm. Protect the strongest branch, suspend marginal opening hours, and avoid opening several debt-funded fronts. When an employee receives a poaching demand, the cheapest defense may be timely training and satisfaction rather than emergency recruiting after departure.
Build a response ladder: freeze discretionary fit-out; preserve tax and debt reserves; verify inventory and staffing; calculate affected contribution; adjust price only as far as the plan can bear; concentrate marketing where spare capacity exists; make a partial repayment only if liquidity stays above the shock floor. If a branch cannot cover avoidable cash costs under the attack, temporarily close or resize it rather than subsidizing it blindly.
Action checklist
- Classify the attack before responding.
- Freeze nonessential capital spending.
- Protect tax and debt cash first.
- Calculate contribution at the rival price.
- Train or replace critical staff early.
- Fight one active rivalry at a time.
| Shock | Immediate metric | First response |
|---|---|---|
| Price reduction | Unit contribution | Set a loss floor |
| Demand pressure | Customers per staffed hour | Cut empty shifts |
| Poaching | Capacity and satisfaction | Meet viable retention condition |
| Rent refusal | Site dependency | Use non-rival property or ownership |
| Delivery failure | Hours of stock remaining | Manual bridge, then route diagnosis |
Tracking sheet and weekly cash audit
A compact manual sheet is more reliable than memory when several businesses, loans, and inventory cycles overlap.
Create one row per in-game day. Record opening cash, sales receipts, inventory purchases, payroll, rent, marketing, logistics, licenses, taxes, loan proceeds, minimum and voluntary repayments, capital expenditure, investment transfers, and closing cash. Add calculated net cash change and an unexplained difference. In a separate operating block, record EconoView revenue, resources or COGS, operating expenses, and profit for each business.
Create a commitments tab with due date, amount, confidence, and reserve bucket. Include accepted imports, regular wholesale orders, tax currently owed, projected tax, loan minimums, recruitment and training, and signed fit-out work. A forecast is credible only when accepted commitments are represented. Use the current in-save loan rate and payment, never a copied value.
Every seven days, reconcile the sheet to the bank and review trailing comparable days. Flag any business with negative unit contribution, any route whose stockout caused lost trading hours, any loan whose stressed DSCR is below the chosen threshold, and any project consuming protected reserves. Keep screenshots for before-and-after tests. This creates an audit trail that distinguishes balance changes, accounting costs, and UI defects.
Action checklist
- Enter opening and closing cash every day.
- Separate operating, financing, investing, and tax flows.
- Reconcile EconoView COGS without double counting.
- List all committed future payments.
- Review stressed DSCR each week.
- Keep version and difficulty in the sheet header.
| Column group | Required fields | Audit question |
|---|---|---|
| Identity | Day, build, difficulty | Are periods comparable? |
| Cash | Opening, inflows, outflows, closing | Does arithmetic reconcile? |
| Operations | Revenue, COGS, wages, fixed costs | Which business earns profit? |
| Financing | Proceeds, minimum, voluntary payment | What did debt contribute? |
| Reserves | Operating, tax, debt, shock | Is expansion cash truly free? |
Version-labelled reproducible loan test
Use a controlled save test when the approval ceiling, repayment behavior, or reporting outcome matters to a major decision.
Label the test with Build 3674, game mode, difficulty, day, bank, current cash, current debts, seven-day BizMan average, and recent EconoView daily results. Save before visiting the bank. Request an intentionally excessive amount and record the maximum the bank reports, a behavior added in Build 3672. Reload, request a smaller amount, and record principal, interest display, minimum payment, and immediate balance movement.
Advance one day without changing businesses. Record the payment and any interest line. Reload the baseline and repeat after a documented income change, such as seven stable days from a new shop. This does not reveal a universal hidden formula, but it tests whether qualification responds in the current save. For partial repayment, save, pay a known amount, record new principal and displayed obligations, advance one day, then reload and compare with no repayment.
Control confounders. Disable mods, keep the same difficulty, avoid a tax due date, pause investments, prevent unusual imports, and verify no rival attack begins. If results differ, state the exact build and save conditions instead of publishing a guaranteed rule. The correct output is a reproducible observation such as 'on Build 3674, this normal-difficulty save at day 84 received this offer,' not 'the bank always lends ten times income.'
Action checklist
- Duplicate the save before testing.
- Write build, mode, difficulty, and day.
- Record both bank offers.
- Use the excessive-request maximum message.
- Control taxes, imports, investments, and rivals.
- Publish observations, not universal promises.
| Test step | Record | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Cash, debt, income windows | Defines starting state |
| Excess request | Reported maximum | Captures current ceiling |
| Accepted request | Rate, payment, proceeds | Captures contract |
| One-day advance | Actual debit and report lines | Checks timing |
| Partial repayment branch | New principal and payment | Checks feature behavior |
Thirty-day forecast, warning ratios, and escalation
A dated rolling forecast reveals the lowest cash point that averages and headline profit conceal.
Create thirty daily columns. Begin each with prior closing cash, add conservative receipts and planned financing, then subtract payroll, rent, marketing, logistics, accepted orders, licenses, tax, minimum loan payments, voluntary repayments, capital work, and investment transfers. Closing cash equals opening cash plus inflows minus outflows. The minimum closing balance, not the month-end balance, is the binding result because a company can end the month solvent after failing on day twelve.
Put cash on the expected date. A cinema can earn well on a weekend yet require license cash first. An importer order can be paid before goods become retail receipts. A new property rent setting waits seven days and occupancy changes later. A new store pays recruitment, training, rent, and wages during ramp. Smoothing these items into daily averages can erase the exact collision between an order, tax bill, and loan minimum.
Build three cases. The base case uses matched-day medians and confirmed commitments. The downside reduces customers and price, raises replenishment cost, and delays ramp. The outage case removes one or more trading days while fixed costs and debt continue. Example: opening cash is one hundred fifty thousand, normal cash before debt is eight thousand per day, the minimum payment is three thousand, day-ten tax is sixty thousand, and day-fifteen import is seventy thousand. Positive normal free cash can still fail at the import date.
Update actual against forecast every midnight. Replace the completed estimate with bank evidence, tag variance as volume, price, COGS, labor, order timing, tax, financing, capital, or error, and roll the horizon forward. Reforecast after a rival attack, employee loss, route failure, tax projection movement, or investment withdrawal. Forecasting is valuable because it gives enough warning to delay decoration, split an order, reduce auto-invest, or choose a smaller partial repayment.
Add cash runway: unrestricted cash divided by stressed daily burn when receipts stop. Add short-horizon coverage: cash plus conservatively valued sellable inventory divided by obligations due in the horizon. Inventory must be discounted because stock is not immediately spendable and may be slow, stolen, or trapped by route capacity. Add fixed-charge coverage: operating cash before rent, licenses, and debt divided by those unavoidable charges. None of these is an official bank covenant; each is an internal alarm.
Define green, amber, and red in advance. Green means the downside forecast remains above every reserve and stressed DSCR clears the selected floor. Amber means one ordinary disruption consumes expansion cash but leaves tax and debt cash intact. Red means the base forecast uses protected money, an accepted order cannot be funded, or downside DSCR falls below one. Consistent definitions prevent optimism from changing the rule after cash begins falling.
At amber, freeze discretionary fit-out, pause increases to auto-invest, verify all accepted orders, and postpone voluntary repayment. At red, cancel or resize uncommitted expansion, withdraw only the investment amount required, remove hours proven to have negative incremental contribution, and seek additional borrowing only after modeling its displayed minimum. Borrowing can bridge a temporary conversion gap; it cannot repair a store whose sales never cover COGS and avoidable expenses.
Review the cause behind every alarm. Buying fast-moving inventory can produce a temporary cash fall that is healthy when conversion is credible and reserves remain funded. Conversely, a high balance can be false comfort just before payroll, tax, and imports settle. Keep an exception log with owner, action, deadline, and expected cash recovery. Close the exception only after the bank and EconoView confirm the recovery, not when a manager merely changes a route target.
Action checklist
- Forecast each day separately.
- Place tax and orders on actual dates.
- Run base, downside, and outage cases.
- Track minimum cash and runway.
- Use predetermined traffic-light rules.
- Replace forecasts with actuals nightly.
- Escalate without consuming protected reserves.
- Investigate the operating cause of every alert.
| Indicator | Formula | Red signal |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum forecast balance | Lowest daily closing cash | Below protected reserve |
| Cash runway | Unrestricted cash / stressed burn | Below disruption horizon |
| Short coverage | Liquid resources / due obligations | Below 1.0 |
| Fixed-charge coverage | Pre-charge cash / fixed charges | Below 1.0 |
| Forecast variance | Actual cash - forecast cash | Unexplained and recurring |
Research ledger
These links establish mechanics or provide a reproducible lead. Any balance-sensitive number still has to be checked in the current save.
Questions answered
Should I repay the starter loan immediately?
Only if cash above the operating, tax, debt, and shock reserves has no better risk-adjusted use. Partial repayment is available in 1.0, so repayment does not need to be all or nothing. First list accepted supplier orders, the corrected EconoView tax projection, minimum daily payments through the next weak sales cycle, and committed setup spending. Run the thirty-day downside forecast after the proposed payment. Compare the certain interest avoided with stressed contribution from any alternative expansion, not with optimistic gross revenue. A starter business with unstable stock, incomplete staffing, or fewer than seven comparable operating days usually benefits from liquidity. A stable company whose forecast remains above every reserve after repayment can reduce principal in stages, then recheck the displayed balance and minimum payment. Preserve a small decision buffer so a rival event or urgent order does not force immediate new borrowing.
Why did cash fall while EconoView showed profit?
The usual cause is timing: inventory, equipment, taxes, investment transfers, or principal payments consumed cash while EconoView recognized only the economic costs associated with the period. Reconcile the bank movement rather than subtracting COGS twice.
Is idle cash still charged negative interest?
No. The official 1.0 banking announcement removed negative interest. Advice about emptying the bank before a weekly charge is stale.
What is a safe DSCR?
The game publishes no required planning ratio. A manager may choose 1.5 or more under stress, but that is a conservative recommendation, not a game mechanic or approval rule.
Why did imports and deliveries stop after release?
Build 3674 fixed an employee quit-state bug that interrupted imports, deliveries, and training. Update, advance to the next day, then diagnose cash, capacity, staff, vehicles, routes, and targets if the problem remains. Confirm the order had enough cash, the warehouse had free shelf space, the purchasing agent and logistics manager were correctly assigned, the driver was scheduled, the vehicle was present and serviceable, and the destination target had room. Record the first failed day and the first successful post-update day. Do not borrow emergency money until the chain shows cash is actually the constraint; a larger balance cannot repair a wrong route target or full shelf.